When you are watching the weather channel and the forecast calls for temperatures above normal, what does “normal” mean? On Tuesday, May 4th the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) and the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI) will update the 30-year U.S. Climate Normals. Climate normals are released every ten years and began in 1901. This year’s release includes climate averages from 1991-2020 whereas we have been using the 1981-2010 data set for the last 10 years. With the new data set comes some potentially significant shifts that will change the way we interpret rainfall averages, monthly temperature averages, and other climate conditions.
The climate normals are weather observations that are used in a variety of functions such as seasonal forecasts (will it be a warmer than average summer?) and weather reports (how much wetter was it this month compared to the average?). But meteorologists on your favorite weather station are not the only ones who are impacted by these new normals.
A variety of industries – travel, utilities, farmers, and constructions companies to name a few – use these averages to make informed decisions. For instance, drought assessment and freeze risk are important indices to farmers; energy companies monitor Heating and Cooling Degree-days and compare them to the normal averages to assess energy use; governments might use snow averages in budgeting and operations planning; or, these averages may be used by the travel industry in developing cancellation policies or in their planning.
So, what do the new normals mean for these industries, our government, and you and me? If we look at the maps from the early 1900s (our baseline), there are splotches of red (warmer than the average), white (about average), and blue (cooler than average).[i] It makes for a very patriotic-looking map. Now, the maps are only varying shades of red. In short, observations of the ten, 30-year normal data sets indicate that dry areas and dry seasons are getting drier, wet areas and wet seasons are getting wetter. This means more extremes that make being outdoors dangerous (due to heat) and increases in extreme weather events (droughts, fires, hurricanes, floods, etc.).
As far as policy and budgeting, the Federal government must consider these trends as they set aside allocations for disaster relief, extreme weather events, and agriculture. If they do not understand the way these climate normals are set, they may not appropriately intervene with policy or appropriations. Meanwhile, industry may be inclined to pass the increased costs of adaptation on to customers. It is possible that the new normal will impact pricing structures or the ability of industries like construction to operate at different times of year.
And you and I? We will likely adapt too. Much like frogs in an ever-warming pot of water, we will come to mentally accept that our average temperatures and humidity are just hotter in the Southeast now. We will come to accept the new normal. But, many who are not in the financial position to adapt will feel the costly and often life-changing effects of these new normals. Disasters are expensive.
The new normals, however, need not remain on the same course. We can support the reduction of greenhouse gas production through our voting habits and consumer choices. Such choices can lead, slowly and over time, to reversals in the hotter places getting hotter and wetter places getting wetter trends. Slowly, and over time, we can see less red on those maps and a little more red, white, and blue.
Dr. Heather Farley is Chair of the Department of Criminal Justice, Public Policy & Management and a professor of Public Management in the School of Business and Public Management at College of Coastal Georgia. She is an associate of the College’s Reg Murphy Center for Economic and Policy Studies.
[i] Climate Normal Maps – https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-and-1991-2020-us-climate-normals
Reg Murphy Center