I am a millennial. Technically, I am what some people refer to as an “Xennial”; these are individuals in the micro-generation right between gen-X and Millennials who bridge the gap between strictly analog generations and digital generations. We have been described as having “both a healthy portion of Gen X grunge cynicism, and a dash of the unbridled optimism of Millennials” (Anne Garvey, 2015).
I was recently listening to a fellow-Xennial, John Mayer’s, 2006 song “Waiting on the World to Change” and was thinking about the lyrics. In the song, Mayer laments that Millennials are “misunderstood,” that we “feel like we don’t have the means to rise above and beat it,” and so we “keep on waiting on the world to change.” He ends by saying that “one day our generation is gonna rule the population.” Technically, John, we have reached “one day.”
This election year, Millennials (27% of eligible voters) combine with new voters in Gen Z (born between 1996 and 2002) will make up nearly 40% of the electorate. This is noteworthy not because it makes me feel special as a Millennial, but because it highlights an important phenomenon; the slow unfolding of a changing electorate. It’s a fascinating thing to watch in an election year, because it can mean that every election has the potential to be surprising and interesting depending on who actually shows up to the polls.
In years past, the Baby Boomers have been the demographic that matters most in an election. They are large in numbers, they have a longer life expectancy than any time in history, and they show up to vote. As recently as 2012, they made up half of the electorate and they vote consistently. As such, savvy politicians have spent a great deal of time ensuring that their messaging resonates with those born between 1946 and 1964. This generation will remain the leaders in expected voters in 2020, but Millennials and Gen Z are hot on their trail – in number at least. Their willingness to actually vote is unclear.
Gen Z, in particular, is going to be much more racially diverse when compared to the older electorate – they are comprised of 55% white and 45% nonwhite eligible voters compared to a 74% white Baby Boomer electorate. Younger voters are also far more likely to vote Democrat as we saw in the 2018 midterms where they voted for Democratic candidates almost three to one.
Those kinds of numbers should be very exciting for Democrats, except for one major problem – this population doesn’t show up to vote. Non-voters in the 2018 midterms were young and racially diverse. Only 11% of actual voters (as opposed to eligible voters) in 2018 were under 30 years of age. The same group who now have clear advantages in numbers, don’t exercise that advantage and so the impacts of the changing electorate remain slow.
Now for my anecdotal observations. I have taught and listened to students in this younger population for the last ten years in my classes. They consistently report that they haven’t really paid much attention to current events until they were forced to do so in college. They overwhelmingly get their news from social media, which of course comes with a whole host of problems in an election environment tainted by foreign interference via social media. They have good ideas, they are problem-solvers, and they know what they care about it when they see it, but they haven’t yet discovered their strength and potential as a democratic voting body. If they do in 2020, there will be significant changes on the horizon. But, if they continue to stay home and not vote, they will continue to “wait on the world to change.”
Dr. Heather Farley is a professor of Public Management in the School of Business and Public Management at College of Coastal Georgia and Chair of the Department of Criminal Justice, Public Policy & Management. She is an associate of the College’s Reg Murphy Center for Economic and Policy Studies.
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