Of all the markets in the economy, the labor market is without question the most complex. The national labor market consists of tens of millions of buyers of labor — private firms, nonprofit organizations, governments and government agencies — and more than 160 million sellers of labor — workers who are scattered all over the country.
The buyers of labor have ever changing demands for zillions of specific skills, while the sellers each have specific skills that are also fluid: skills can be enhanced and acquired, as well as lost.
Obstacles to labor market transactions abound. It takes time and money for employers and workers to find each other, and bad matches are costly to both parties.
Local labor markets, to the extent there are such things, are only slightly less complex. I say to the extent there are such things because employers and workers rarely limit their searches to workers and employers of a local area.
Labor markets are always in flux. Even more so over the business cycle.
It’s not just the levels of employment and unemployment that fluctuate with the business cycle. The size of the labor force itself fluctuates with the business cycle.
The labor force — which consists of employed workers plus workers classified as unemployed (not working but looking of work) — rises in boom times and shrinks in recessions. Our local labor force is a perfect example.
The years 2000 to 2005 were boom years in Glynn County. During those years, the county’s population increased by 7.4 percent. The county’s labor force increased by even more: 12.4 percent.
The recession hit us sometime around mid-2006. The local labor force continued to grow, but at a slower rate. Between 2005 and 2008, while the county’s population grew by 7.5 percent, the county’s labor force grew by 5.1 percent, reaching a peak of 41,730 in July 2008.
The recession then went from bad to worse. It lingered in Glynn through 2014. And the county’s labor force shrunk.
From 2008 to 2014, the population of Glynn grew by 5.3 percent, from 78,013 to 82,175. From July 2008 to December 2014, Glynn’s labor force fell from 41,780 to 36,427, a decrease of 12.7 percent.
Consider the decrease from another angle. In 2005, 54 percent of Glynn’s population was in the labor force. By 2015, 45 percent of the county’s population was in the labor force. That’s not the aging of the local population at work. That’s the business cycle at work.
Where did all those workers go during our recession?
Workers, like entrepreneurs, seize opportunities. Most workers in the labor force are full-time workers who remain in the labor force looking for work should they lose their jobs. But a sizable portion of workers — roughly 30 percent according to recent Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates — do not work full-time, year-round.
These workers tend to be more responsive to shifting labor market conditions. During recessions when jobs are scarce, many of these workers are quicker to drop out of the labor force should they lose their jobs. When economic conditions and job opportunities improve, back into the labor force they go.
The good news for Glynn is, that’s just what we’re seeing now. The county’s labor force now stands at 39,506 up 8.5 percent from that December 2014 level of 36,427. As our local economy continues to grow, we’ll see that trend continue.
Reg Murphy Center