The two most popular explanations of the current inflation are: “Corporate greed is to blame for inflation” and “Joe Biden is to blame for inflation.” Each explanation is simple, clear and bogus.
Consider first the corporate greed theory of inflation. The country’s first bout of inflation occurred right out of the chute, during the Revolutionary War. Economic historians estimate that from 1776 to 1780, the average annual rate of inflation in the new nation was 12 percent, including 22 percent in 1777 and 30 percent in 1778.
That’s a problem for the corporate greed theory of inflation. There were no corporations in the U.S. until after the Revolutionary War.
The giant corporation of the modern sort did not make the American scene until the 1870s, and its economy-transforming proliferation took place roughly between 1890 and 1910. Those were the years of the “robber barons,” the “gilded age.”
What was inflation like during the gilded age? It wasn’t. Price indexes constructed by economic historians indicate that prices in 1910 were 26 percent lower than they were in 1870. If inflation is caused by corporate greed, then by logic deflation is caused by corporate generosity, which would make the robber barons saints of selflessness.
Inflation ran low from 1952 to 1967, perked up a bit from 1968 to 1972, surged from 1973 to 1982, ran low from 1983 through the first half of 2021, at which time the current bout kicked in.
It thus follows from the logic of the corporate greed theory of inflation that corporations were not very greedy from 1952 to 1967, moderately greedy from 1968 to 1972, quite greedy from 1973 to 1982, not very greedy from 1983 through the first half of 2020, and quite greedy after that.
For the theory to hold, corporate greed would have to be a sporadic mood swing. Seems a bit far-fetched.
Moving on, readers of Dr. Skip Mounts’ columns in this newspaper know that the “Joe Biden did it” theory of inflation has less hunt than a headless dog. Dr. Mounts, who never shies from an uphill battle, has painstakingly explained in numerous columns that modern inflation has only one source, a country’s central bank. Our central bank is the Federal Reserve, or “Fed,” for short.
A president does not decide federal tax and spending policies. Congress does. A president can certainly influence debate over taxes and spending, but Congress calls the shots.
More to the point, government spending does not “pump money into the economy.” Government spending is paid for out of tax revenues or financed with borrowed money – proceeds from the sale of Treasury bonds. The borrowed money is not new money. It came from the investors and institutions who bought the Treasury bonds.
Only the Federal Reserve can “pump money into the economy.” Which means only the Fed can cause inflation.
What’s missing from much of the current criticism of the Fed is context. The current inflation is the consequence of the Fed’s response to the economic collapse in the first months of the COVID pandemic. The unemployment rate went from 3.5 percent to 14.7 percent in two months, while real GDP dropped by 35 percent in three. That’s depression-size contraction. Sheer panic in money and financial markets threatened to make the situation worse.
To prevent economic calamity during the pandemic, the Fed, along with central banks across the planet, opened every money floodgate they could find. Turns out they opened a few too many.
At any rate, there is an important lesson here. Don’t fall for bogus explanations of inflation. Don’t peddle them, either.
Reg Murphy Center