U.S. Birth Rate Has Been Sinking since 2007

The U.S. birth rate has been sinking sharply since 2007 for no clear reasons.

A country’s birth rate is measured as the number of births per 1,000 women aged 15 years to 44 years.  Between 1980 and 2007, the U.S. birth rate fluctuated between 65 to 70.  In 2007, it was 69.5.

The U.S. birth rate has fallen every year since. The most recent measure of the U.S. birth rate, for 2020, is 56.0. That’s a 19.4 percent drop in 13 years.

The U.S. birth rate decline is widespread across women of different ages.

The teen birth rate – the number of births per 1,000 women age 15 to 19 years – had been falling before 2007: after peaking at 61.8 in 1991, it steadily fell to 42.5 by 2007. It has since plunged to 15.3 in 2020.

U.S. birth rates have also fallen for women in their 20s and early 30s. The birth rate for women age 20 to 24 years fell from 106.3 in 2007 to 63.0 in 2020. The birth rate for women age 25 to 29 years fell from 117.5 to 90.2. For women age 30 to 34 years, the birth rate decreased from 99.9 to 94.9.

Birth rates have increased modestly since 2007 for women age 35 to 44 years. For women age 35 to 39 years, the birth rate increased from 47.5 to 51.8; for women age 40 to 44 years, the rate increased from 9.5 to 11.8.

Those figures show two changes since 2007, one small, one big. The small change is: women are waiting longer to have children. The big change is: women are having fewer children.

U.S. birth rates have also decreased across race and ethnicity since 2007. The birth rate for Hispanic women fell from 102.2 in 2007 to 63.1 in 2020. The birth rate for non-Hispanic Black women fell from 71.6 to 59.2. The birth rate for non-Hispanic White women fell from 60.1 to 53.2.

The birth rate has also decreased across education level. The birth rate for women without a high school diploma decreased from 119.0 to 97.5. For college-educated women, the birth rate fell from 72.5 to 59.4.

What’s driving the sinking U.S. birth rate?

Potential explanations come quickly to mind. The recession of 2007-09. Better employment opportunities for women. Rising costs of raising children, including child care and housing costs. Increased use of contraceptives. College debt burdens. 

Economists have been investigating the causes of the sinking U.S. birth rate with great intensity in recent years. Their findings, to date, are clear. None of those potential explanations, nor any combination of them, explain the sinking U.S. birth rate.

Birth rates in the past fluctuated with the state of the economy, rising with expansions, falling in recessions. Thus, the 2007-09 recession might explain the first years of the sinking birth rate.  But while the economy grew without interruption from mid-2009 through February 2020, the U.S. birth rate continued to sink.

Changes in employment opportunities, child care costs, housing costs, contraceptive use and college debt burdens vary, sometimes considerably, from state to state. State-by-state comparisons show no relationship between changes those variables and changes in birth rates.

So, where does that leave us?

In a recent study, economists Melissa Kearney, Phillip Levine and Luke Pardue conjecture that changes in women’s priorities could be driving the sinking birth rate. The authors acknowledge that their “shifting priorities” explanation is speculative and probably impossible to empirically support. They offer the conjecture because economic factors fail to explain the sinking birth rate.

We’ll explore the consequences of the sinking U.S. birth rate in my next column.