U.S. Life Expectancy Falls to 1996 Levels

Life is short, but it’s getting shorter for people in the United States. Life expectancy has fallen precipitously in recent years to levels not seen since 1996. This drop was largely due to deaths from COVID-19 and increased drug overdose deaths.

U.S. life expectancy fell for a second year in a row in 2021, according to a December 22,2022 report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The average life expectancy in the U.S. declined for a second year in a row to 76.4 in 2021, down from 77 in 2020, and 78.8 in 2019.

Both women and men saw comparable declines in life expectancy in 2021. As of 2021, the average life expectancy of women in the U.S. dropped to 79.3 years, while the average life expectancy for men in the U.S. dropped to 73.5 years.

The CDC’s list of top killers was largely unchanged from 2020 to 2021 with two exceptions. Influenza fell off the list. Meanwhile, liver disease and cirrhosis became the ninth leading cause of death.

COVID-19 has received a lot of media attention, but it was not the top killer in 2021. Heart disease, not COVID-19, was the leading cause of death in the U.S. The second leading cause of death was cancer. COVID-19 was the third leading cause of death in 2021, killing about 460,000 people in the U.S.

Multiple surges of COVID-19 cases guarantee that COVID-19 will be a leading cause of death for 2022 as well. Natural immunity from past infections, improved treatments, and vaccinations are reducing the death rate from COVID-19. That’s good news for 2023.

The recent CDC report shows another significant change. Overdose deaths in the U.S. continued to increase in 2021. In 2021, there were 106,699 drug overdose deaths in the U.S. By comparison, there were 91,799 drug overdose deaths in the U.S. in 2020.

Synthetic opioids, such as fentanyl, accounted for a lot of the increase in overdose deaths. Drug overdose deaths involving synthetic opioids increased 22% from 2020 to 2021.  

There is some good news related to overdose deaths. According to CDC data, U.S. overdose deaths peaked in March 2022. Every month since has shown a decline. Additionally, the rate of drug overdose deaths from heroin decreased 32% from 2020 to 2021. These are good signs, but there’s a long way to go.

What’s in store for 2022 and 2023? COVID-19 and overdose deaths are guaranteed to be featured on the 2022 CDC report. Recent trends suggest that deaths from COVID-19 and overdose deaths are on track to decline in 2023. After falling off the top ten killers list in 2021, influenza is likely to return to the mortality report due to a severe flu season this winter.

Several institutional solutions can help the U.S. to raise life expectancy, including funding public health, expanding access to addiction treatment programs, and encouraging vaccination against viruses like the flu and COVID-19. Effective health and physical education in schools can prepare children for a lifetime of healthy decision-making. It is possible to increase access to medical care by expanding Medicare eligibility and promoting enrollment in the government-sponsored Marketplace health insurance plans created by the Affordable Care Act.

It is likely that U.S. will see life expectancy begin to increase once again. A declining death rate from COVID-19 and decreasing overdose deaths place the U.S. on a trajectory to see increases in life expectancy in 2022 or 2023.

Roscoe Scarborough, Ph.D. is interim chair of the Department of Social Sciences and associate professor of sociology at College of Coastal Georgia. He is an associate scholar at the Reg Murphy Center for Economic and Policy Studies. He can be reached by email at rscarborough@ccga.edu.