Welcome to the Post-Boomer Labor Market

Wondering why Glynn employers are having trouble finding workers? These figures should help.

Glynn County’s labor force is currently 39,210. It was 39,156 in 2005. Though Glynn’s population has grown by 16.7 percent in the 17 years since 2005, its labor force has grown by a speck.

The disparity between population growth and labor force growth, though severe in Glynn, is not unique to Glynn. While Georgia’s population has increased by 21 percent since 2005, its labor force has increased by 13.1 percent. The nation’s population has grown by 12.3 percent since 2005; its labor force, by 8 percent.

What explains the disparity between population growth and labor force growth?

Boomers retiring.

Consider the life cycle of baby boomers, that wave of people born in the years 1946 through 1964. The first boomers, those born in 1946, began entering the labor force in discernible numbers around 1964. They turned 25 years old in 1971, and 55 years old in 2001.

The last boomers, those born in 1964, began entering the labor force in discernible numbers in 1982. They turned 25 in 1989, and 55 in 2019.

Why does it matter when they turned 25 and when they turned 55? Economists refer to workers aged 25 years to 54 years as “prime age” workers. Of all the people in the labor force, prime age workers have the highest rates of labor force participation.

Thus, boomers began entering the class of prime age workers in 1971, they finished entering the class in 1989, they began leaving the class in 2001, and were completely gone from the class by 2019.

Augmenting the effect of the boomer life cycle on the labor force was the women’s movement. The women’s movement dates back long before 1946, of course, but it was only after 1950 that women’s labor force participation began to rise and then surge. Boomer women provided the surge.

Here are the numbers. The labor force participation rate of prime age women workers rose from 36.8 percent in 1950 to 44.5 percent in 1964, to 64.6 percent in 1978, and to 74.6 percent in 1992. The rate then leveled off; it’s currently 76.4 percent.

The big picture, in waves, is this. The wave of women into the labor force began in 1950. That wave was amplified by the wave of boomers into the labor force, which began in 1964. The wave into the class of prime age workers began in 1971 and continued through 1989. It was a huge wave.

The wave of boomers into the class of prime age workers became a wave of boomers out of the class in 2001. By 2019, the wave out of the class was complete. Between 2001 and 2019, the wave of boomers into retirement began.

Here’s the big picture – the effect on U.S. labor force growth of the boomer life cycle, augmented by the rise in women’s labor force participation – in numbers. From 1950 to 1960, the U.S. labor force grew by 11.9 percent. From 1960 to 1970, it grew by 18.9 percent. From 1970 to 1980, 29.2 percent. From 1980 to 1990, 17.7 percent. From 1990 to 2000, 13.3 percent. From 2000 to 2010, 7.9 percent. And from 2010 to 2022 (2022 to avoid the 2020 pandemic anomaly), the U.S. labor force grew by 6.8 percent.

The demographics of Americans younger than 16 years suggest that U.S. labor force growth will continue to shrink in the years ahead. Welcome to the post-boomer labor market, where scarce labor is the new normal.

Wish we saw more young people and children in Glynn.